About the Tool

As states expand home and community based services (HCBS) for individuals with long term care needs, many are concerned that the demand for these services could be much greater than the current demand for institutional care (i.e., the so-called "woodwork effect.") The Lewin Center on Long Term Care developed the HCBS Population Tool to provide estimates of this potential demand.

Go to the HCBS Population Tool.

The Tool provides estimates for selected years between 2000 and 2020. Users can generate state-specific estimates of the number of potential HCBS users for selected calendar years, age groups, and income groups. The Lewin Center on Long Term Care generated these estimates by combining national-level data on specific disabilities and conditions with state-level Census data on age, income, and broad measures of disability. (See documentation for a complete description of the approach used).

Beyond the Tool

The Lewin Group can adapt methods used to generate the Tool's estimates to provide custom analyses that more precisely reflect the disability and income eligibility criteria used for home and community base care services in a given state. A similar approach also makes county-level estimates possible, which could be used for more refined planning and analysis.

In addition, the Lewin Center on Long Term Care provides a range of services related to the provision and financing of home and community based services, including technical assistance, evaluation, and research.

To inquire about custom analyses or our related services, please contact the Center on Long Term Care.