Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA): Long Term Costs for Governments, Employers, Families and Providers

June 2010

Lewin Contact: John Sheils

In this study we provide estimates of the cost and coverage impacts of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). We estimate the program’s impact on sources of health insurance coverage and spending for the federal government, state and local governments, private employers, consumers and providers. We estimated the impact of the Act over a 10 year period from 2010 through 2019, which is consistent with the “budget window” used by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). However, we also provide estimates for 2020 through 2029.

We developed these estimates using the Group Health Benefits Simulation Model (HBSM) developed by the Lewin Group. Our revenue and spending estimates over the 20-year period reflect the actual phase in of coverage provisions and expected lags in enrollment for newly eligible people. However, to illustrate the program’s impact on sources of coverage and family spending, we present estimates assuming that Act is fully implemented and that enrollment has fully matured in 2011.
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