DHHS, Office of the Assistant Secretaryfor Planning and Evaluation (ASPE)

This paper is the culmination of research on participation and expenditures in state AFDC programs. The project entailed the construction of separate pooled time-series econometric models for both the Basic and Unemployed Parent (UP) programs as well as a model for the average monthly benefit for the combined programs. These models utilize quarterly state-level data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1979 to 1994. They relate within-state changes in demographics, the economy, and programs to changes in caseloads, participants, child participants, and expenditures per case. In addition to presenting the results of these models at the national level, this paper includes an in-depth discussion of participation patterns in four states: California, Florida, Maryland, and Wisconsin.

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