Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020

This paper presents projections of physician supply and requirements for 18 physician specialties using the Physician Supply Model and the Physician Requirements Model developed for the Health Resources and Services Administration by The Lewin Group and the Altarum Institute. The paper describes the data, assumptions and methods used to project the future supply of and requirements for physician services; presents projections from these models under alternative scenarios; and discusses the implications of these projections for the future adequacy of physician supply.