The Adequacy of Pharmacist Supply: 2004 to 2030
December 2008
DHHS, Health Resources and Services Administration
The Lewin Group and Altarum Institute recently completed a study for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on the future adequacy of supply of pharmacists. A previous Health Resources and Services Administration (2000) report documented the current and growing shortfall of pharmacists. Since release of that report the U.S. Bureau of the Census revised upward its projections of population growth, the Federal Government enacted the Medicare Part D program which expands prescription drug coverage to more elderly; technology continued to advance, minimum credentials for entry into the workforce for new pharmacists changed from baccalaureate to doctorate degrees, the Nation’s educational capacity to train new pharmacists and pharmacy technicians continued to expand and enrollment in schools of pharmacy has been at an all time high, and the role of pharmacists in providing care to patients continued to evolve. The Lewin Group and Altarum revised HRSA's Pharmacist Supply and Requirements Model (PhSRM) to examine current and projected future adequacy of pharmacist supply in the United States taking into account trends in the latest supply and demand determinants.
The overall findings are that the supply of pharmacists is growing significantly faster than was previously projected, but the demand for pharmacists continues to grow rapidly due in large part to population growth and aging. There is currently a moderate shortfall of pharmacists. The overall conclusion of this study is that the Nation has responded to earlier predictions of a growing shortfall of pharmacists, and to market forces that have raised pharmacist earnings, by expanding supply and increasing the use of technology and technicians. Still, the increase in supply will only be sufficient to keep pace with a rising demand due to changing demographics. Supply would need to increase further than currently projected to meet the demand caused by growth in per capita consumption of pharmaceuticals. Improvements in productivity through further employment of pharmacy aides and technicians and the application of evolving technologies should continue to help the supply meet these increases in demand.